key takeaway:
Bitcoin (BTC)) An increase of 3.5% between June 7 and 9, which came from a mark of $ 108,500. Despite this recent upper, professional traders are particularly cautious, as reflected in BTC derivative matrix. The broad macroeconomic stress maintains, and the bitcoin shows a strong correlation with the stock market, limiting its short -term reverse capacity.
Some analysts may estimate bitcoin Rally up to $ 150,000 As the US government has an increase of $ 4 trillion in its debt range. However, futures market data suggests short -term hesitation, potentially adversely operated by macroeconomic signal and incorrectly of bitcoin Possible supply jerk,
From June 6, bitcoin Futures premium The 5% of the neutral markets is hovering near the base line. The recent price growth has so far inspired significant confidence among traders. Nevertheless, it would be wrong to say that Bhavna is completely pessimistic, especially with bitcoin, currently trades below 3% from its $ 111,965 all-time high set on 22 May.
Recently the price movement was not inspired by highly leveraged speculation, an indicator of a healthy market foundation. However, if there is a possibility of recession, bitcoin is unlikely to maintain a level above $ 110,000, given its continuous correlation with traditional equity markets.
Currently, bitcoin correlation with S&P 500 is 82%, which means that two property has gone in the same directions. This trend has been there for the last four weeks. Although the correlation has fluctuated in the last nine months, investors consider bitcoin to a large extent as a risk-property rather than a reliable hedge.
Bitcoin can struggle against comprehensive economic headwind
Investors’ concerns have been reinforced by previous examples, when the American trade war intensified, almost every asset affects almost every asset class including equity, oil and bitcoin. Nevertheless, bitcoin was properly designed for a period of financial uncertainty. If confidence in the fiscal stability of the US government deteriorates, the perceptions of risk may move in favor of bitcoin.
Bitcoin is long shorter Margin ratio OKX shown that 4 times reduced shorts. Historically, excessive confidence has pushed this ratio above 20 times, while the level below 5 times is seen as a recession in the side of the long.
However, none of these indicators suggest that big investors or market -makers are preparing for bitcoin price accidents.
Connected: Strategy adds 1,045 bitcoins to $ 110m in the latest purchase
If investor confidence in the ability of American Treasury to manage increasing loans is weak, then the capacity for capital is government bondsUnlike S&P 500, which holds the $ 50 trillion, or holds gold on $ 22.5 trillion, can also move beyond $ 150,000 by capturing a small portion of bitcoin in outflows.
In the short term, as long as the US dollar remains the world’s reserved currency, the price of bitcoin is unsafe for pressure down, especially if the recession is confirmed. As a result, the prevalent concerns about the global trade war and the dull effect of high interest rates are likely to reverse the period near bitcoin.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intention and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The ideas, ideas and opinions expressed here are alone of the author and not necessarily reflected or represented the ideas and ideas of the components.
