key takeaways:
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Spot bitcoin ETF inflow increased from $ 3 billion to $ 228 million in four weeks to 90%.
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While strong ETF flow often drives bitcoin rallies, recent data shows that price movements can occur independently.
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Despite the short -term sales pressure, purchasing long -term BTC whales reveals the potential continuity of BTC uptrend.
Bitcoin (BTC) Market recorded a 90+% decline in Spot BTC Exchange-Treded Fund (ETF) inflow, falling from $ 3 billion to just $ 228 million this week in the last week of April.
Historically, the recession in the ETF flow has affected the BTC value, especially when the daily flow exceeds $ 1.5 billion for average consecutive weeks. To understand the potential impact on bitcoin, let’s examine the four major periods and their correlation of important spot ETF activity with BTC price movements.
Q1 in 2024, from 2 February to 15 March, Spot ETFS recorded $ 11.39 billion In seven weeks, the net flow increased by 57%. However, BTC prices reached peak in the week five, as the price of $ 4.8 billion in the last two weeks did not push its price more.
Similarly, Q3 2024 saw a flow of $ 16.8 billion in nine weeks from 18 October to 13 December, giving 66% rally. However, when the flow slowed down in the 10th week, the price of bitcoin decreased by 9%, strengthening the link between ETF flow and price improvement.
In Q1 2025, in two weeks (January 17-24), a flow of $ 3.8 billion occurred on January 20 with a new all-time high of $ 110,000, but overall prices fell 4.8%.
Recently, Q2 2025 (April 25 -May 9) saw $ 5.8 billion and 22% price rally in Inflow, although Bitcoin had already received 8% in the first two weeks despite negative netflows.
This data challenges the notion that Spot ETF continuously runs prices. While Q3 2024 and Q2 2025 suggests that strong flow fuel rallies, Q1 2024 and Q1 2025 show prices may stabilize or fall despite significant flows. Q2 2025 rally, partially independent of spot ETF activity, indicates on other drivers such as US tariffs, retail interest or reduced bitcoin whale accumulation.
Now with the influx of $ 228 million, the historical trend loses the recession, which suggests a possible improvement. However, a recent whale activity emerges from a counterplace, which depicts the picture more rapidly.
Related: 6 signs that predict $ 140K as the next price top of bitcoin
Bitcoin faces selling pressure, but can maintain a whale tendency
Bitcoin displays short -term sales pressure as the purchase/sales pressure delta becomes negative according to Alfractal CEO Joao Vesson. Chart show The whale has begun to unload BTC between $ 105,000 and $ 100,000, which has been flagged as a risky level by Vesson. This recession innings, with a negative cumulative volume delta, indicates pressure sales in the short term.
Nevertheless, long -term purchase pressure remains strong, it is an improvement to suggest, not a reversal. Data from cryptoctive highlights that whales are taking relatively low benefits in the current period compared to previous value peaks. Unnamed Analyst Blitz Trading noted,
“Compared to previous rallies, we can see that the whales have taken very little profit during this recent surge. It may indicate that the upward tendency may continue. This chart should be closely monitored.”
Related: Bitcoin Bulls as a purpose for new all-time high by next week as capital flow
There are no investment advice or recommendations in this article. Each investment and business move include risk, and readers should conduct their own research while taking decisions.
