Opinion by: Oleksandr Lutskevych, Founder and CEO of CEX.io
Bitcoin markets have shown more emotional flexibility than conventional equity during many consecutive global shaking.
While some on Wall Street found this “impressive” during “Liberation Day” on 2 April, such optimism is not a mess-this is a pattern that is spread over digital assets.
Let’s look close to the dynamics of the fear and greed index in crypto and stock. Donald Trump announced tariffs on almost all countries in April, Stock F&G index Dropped From 19 to 3-more than 80% dip and three years low. In contrast, Crypto F&G Index rejected 44 to 18 – 59% reduction.
Of course, these index are not the same. CNN’s stock F&G Index Vix tracks traditional spirit through indications such as safet-horn demand and market width. Crypto F&G index price depends on the speed, volume and social spirit metrics. Despite different inputs, both are aimed at measuring the same thing: market spirit.
When the macro is seen shoulder to shoulder during a shock, the opposite in the mood becomes clear. When macro winds turn into cold, stock investors are usually barely nervous and are more slowly cured than crypto investors.
May 2022 presents an example. On May 4, US Federal Reserve raised Interest rates from 0.5% to 1% are afraid of the possibility of recession that spread to the crypto. Then, Luna and Ot from 9 May to 13 May DarlingNevertheless the stock F&G index fell 82% (4), while Crypto F&G fell 62% (from 8).
Even when Crypto was already under pressure and was harder by Luna’s collapse, which contributed to many insolvency within the industry, the crypto was less afraid than the stock market. Crypto’s spirit took longer to rebound due to the bear market established at that time.
Crypto’s inherent optimism is a strength, not a defect
Some can call the optimism of crypto as naive or irrational. In fact, it is structural.
Instability for Crypto reinforces the expectations of the native investors. A 20% decline in equity is a bear market. In crypto, this can be a healthy improvement. The scale and frequency of the price air conditioned crypto enthusiasts to face the market shock.
There is also a cultural division. Is designed for stock markets and institutions. It is cautious and slow. Crypto was born from the rebellion and was picked up by retail, which increasingly turns into new narratives.
Nevertheless, crypto’s optimism is not immune for erosion. As the institutional impact increases and keeps correlated with bitcoin equity, the fears of wall street are rapidly bleeding in the sector. While scaring tariffs, the sentiment recovery timeline was almost similar to shares and crypto – a possible sign of optimism erosion.
Nevertheless, Crypto optimism remains structurally sound.
Shield of crypto optimism
What is the protection of crypto optimism, two major, and very different, the presence of groups.
First – Believer – See Crypto as a future. Within this group, bitcoin (BTC) Adopters see it in the form of value and hedge stores. For them, short -term volatility is just noise, a distraction from long -term vision. This perspective inspires them to become a long-term holder, which is surprised by daily fluctuations.
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Altcoin believers, meanwhile, attract strength from rapid innovation. New protocols, stories and technologies keep the region in constant pace. This ability to reinforce – and rebound – confirms the idea that Crypto is an ecosystem defined by speed, not by stagnation.
There is also a second group, mainly recent arrival. They see Crypto more as a speculative condition. They include many short -term holders and are more reactive to news.
When the fear spreads, this second group mainly runs for exit, as shown by more persistent peaks in the binary CDD of bitcoin for short -term holders.STHS)) Longer than holders (LthsThis group is also more susceptible to erosion of optimism.
If, however, this second group is a minority, as in bitcoin, where LTS is controlled 65% In the supply of BTC, then all these macro-related fear that crawl in space will only have a limited, short-term effect.
Beyond simple belief
In a bright future, the punishment of believers in a bright future is not based on blind faith, but a solid basis. In the case of bitcoin, this foundation rests on a firm, committed holder base, a certain supply, and a clear, approximate monetary philosophy that stands out during the period of economic uncertainty. These are not speculative claims – they are principles that have gained credibility over time.
The works also supported this optimism. While the markets were nervous on tariffs in March-April, Bitcoin LTHS accumulated more than 300,000 BTC. Liquidity strengthened, 1% of the market depth ends Q1 at $ 500 million, indicating constant confidence and participation from market manufacturers and investors.
Meanwhile, global liquidity such as macro matrix reached a new height. Many bitcoin cycle indicators, including a pie cycle top, are far from flashing a top signal, assuring that there may still be space for movement upwards.
These are some factors that fuel Crypto optimism, and will emerge more. Because optimism in this place is not temporary – it is embedded. While the fear is in the headlines, Crypto continues to work like a system that prepares something big. And till now, history supports that scene.
Opinion by: Oleksandr lutskevych, the founder and CEO of CEX.io.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intention and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The ideas, ideas and opinions expressed here are alone of the author and not necessarily reflected or represented the ideas and ideas of the components.
