key takeaways:
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The bitcoin Aviv ratio remains below the historical peak level, indicating a possible climb above $ 330,000 before a cycle top is confirmed.
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In 2025, over-the-counter bitcoin holdings are quite low, indicating strategic accumulation by strategy, metaplanet, blacket and others.
Bitcoin (BTC) The value has been a rocky month, but recent analysis indicates that BTC may increase another 300% in this cycle. Technical Analyst Gart Wan Lagen X post AVIV ratio is highlighted, a metric that compares active capitalization of bitcoin (motion in motion), which is with its total invested capitalization (except for the real capital, mining awards).
Historically, when the aviv ratio crosses its +3, the meaning of its +3, it has indicated a cycle top. For example, BTC was $ 1,200 in 2013, near $ 20,000 in 2017, and near $ 69,000 in 2021. Currently, the level of non -ism ratio remains below these past peaks, suggesting that bitcoin can climb to at least $ 330,000 in this cycle, before the +3σ mean deviation conditions are completed.
AVIV ratio provides a unique lens on market dynamics, indicating investor activity vs. lock-in value. A spike indicates enlarged trade or gains, often before major value movements. The analysis of van lagane is associated with the cyclical nature of bitcoin, where post–six rallies have historically given significant benefits. However, its forecast accuracy lacks verification in different market conditions, and instability remains a wildcard.
Story, connect with data Cryptocvic Reveals a notable innings: Bitcoin holdings fell from 166,500 to 137,400 at the over-the-counter (OTC) desk in 2025. This decline suggests that large investors are holding from exchanges, potentially signaling low sales pressure or a change towards long -term storage.
This year the decreasing balance in the OTC desk is led by strategic accumulation by institutional investors, led by aggressive purchase of strategy, and like new entry MetaplanetWhich has collected 10,000 BTCs, as well as with a strong net flow in the spot bitcoin ETF, which is total $ 128.18 billion In net value. The BTC has more than $ 70 billion in BTC in Blackrock’s Crypto portfolio, which fulfills the current intentions of major investors in the market.
📊 market update: #black Rock Another $ 250 million added to #Bitcoin On June 17 – Marking six straight days of purchase, now a total of $ 1.4 billion.
Its present $ BTC Holding costs more than $ 70 billion.
(H/T: @arkham, pic.twitter.com/jmjnau2kdy
– Cointelegraph Market and Research (@cointelegraphmt) June 18, 2025
Related: 25% bitcoin price rally set to follow today’s improvement if history repeats
Power Law targets bitcoin price between $ 220,000 and $ 330,000
Van Lagane’s $ 330,000 similar to the target, Another study Bitcoin researcher with a comparable cycle top to BTC by Sminstone. The analysis takes advantage of a 365-day simple moving average (SMA), aligning with a power law model (R G = 0.96), in this cycle the price of bitcoin can reach $ 220,000 to $ 330,000.
Currently trading around $ 104,000, BTC would require an increase of 100% to 200% to hit these levels, in line with historical peaks where prices doubled or three times above the power law trendline.
With the challenges of the model, the perceptions of reducing instability, maintaining important swings showing the value cycles of bitcoin, as clarified by stable deviations from the trendline. Being optimistic, the researcher warned that the analysis draws from only four market cycles, urging suspicion.
Similarly, cointelegraph Informed A list of 30 bull market peak indicators from the cooring that suggests that bitcoin can climb to $ 230,000, despite BTC reaching $ 112,000, no cycle indicates top. PI bicycle tops and MVRVs such as Matrix show that there is space to run in the bull market, supporting with an optimistic approach.
Related: Bitcoin below $ 100K now ‘low probability’ as BTC price liquidity at $ 106k
There are no investment advice or recommendations in this article. Each investment and business move include risk, and readers should conduct their own research while taking decisions.
