key takeaways:
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Spot bitcoin ETF inflow and low leverage suggests that the BTC rally has space to grow.
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The US Federal Reserve liquidity and weak bond cells support a bitcoin push beyond $ 110,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) On May 21, after reaching a new all-time high of $ 109,827, it was unable to maintain its speed speed, with the traders questioned whether derivative markets mainly ran the rally. From a comprehensive point of view, $ 77 billion in Bitcoin Futures Open Interest has undoubtedly played a role. However, a close look at the data shows a more positive attitude for the benefit of the forward price.
The current 7% annual bitcoin futures premium is well within the neutral range of 5% to 10%, which is specific from the last two weeks. This indicator can easily exceed 30% during the period of strong optimism, so the current level is relatively low. At the same time, the absence of excessive leverage mainly reduces concerns about rally run by derivatives.
Balanced order books and spot bitcoin points to ETF Inflow Spot-Powered Rally
For comparison, during high time on 20 January during the previous bitcoin $ 109,346, the annual futures premium reached 15%, showing high levels of leveraged bullish posts affecting the price. Therefore, the existing bitcoin derivative market appears healthy, which suggests strong demand in the spot markets.
During the January bull run, the price of bitcoins on the coinbase trading at a premium compared to other exchanges. This so-called coinbase premium is no longer present, which means that buying pressure is more equally spread-indicating a healthy market.
While excessive purchase pressure on the same exchange is not necessary, this can make it easier to trigger unstable price increase when the liquidity is low. This data supports the idea that derivatives markets were not the main drivers of recent price hikes.
In addition, $ 1.37 billion in pure flow to spot Bitcoin Exchange-Treded Fund (ETF) in the United States between May 15 and May 20 reveals $ 1.37 billion that spot buyers, instead of derivative traders, were primary forces behind the rally.
Despite the lack of punishment in bitcoin futures, many indicators and reverse indicate. Forced liquidation Between May 18 and May 21, the posts of BTC futures of recession were relatively low, strengthening the idea of a spot-driven rally. In comparison, on 9 May the rally of $ 104,000 started $ 538 million in liquidation in three days.
Connected: Is the price of bitcoin close to a cycle top? – 5 indicators that help traders decide
On 21 May, bitcoin options markets showed a slight increase in demand for put (cell) options, but nothing is uncommon. For comparison, the put-to-call ratio in deribit fell to 0.4X during the previous bull run on 20 January, reflecting low amounts of self-confidence in calls (buy) options.
The upward movement of bitcoin may be limited by macroeconomic factors, especially tariff war continues. Nevertheless, the value of the price to reach $ 110,000 is based on the weakening position of the US Federal Reserve. Inject liquidity The recession may reduce concerns, but it also reduces the appeal of government bonds, which is in favor of risks like bitcoin.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intention and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The ideas, ideas and opinions expressed here are alone of the author and not necessarily reflected or represented the ideas and ideas of the components.
